“Paxton Will Win Texas Senate Race, But That Doesn’t Make Him a Good Candidate,” Says National Review Contributor as Competitive Contest Against Rising Democrat James Talarico Intensifies

A National Review contributor and radiologist offered a blunt assessment of the high-stakes Texas U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, predicting victory for Republican Ken Paxton while openly questioning the quality of his candidacy.Pradheep J. Shanker, M.D., who posts as

and contributes to National Review, wrote on X: “Paxton is going to win, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good candidate.” The comment came in response to conservative commentator Erick Erickson, who argued that Paxton can still prevail by focusing on Democratic nominee James Talarico’s record rather than promoting himself.

Erickson had posted that Paxton “can still win” but “he’s going to win by reminding people why Talarico is too far left for Texas, not selling himself,” and shared a video clip from a Democratic primary debate in which Talarico discussed balancing personal views with ICE enforcement.

The exchange highlights ongoing internal Republican debate about Paxton, the longtime Texas attorney general who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May 2026 primary runoff after receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Paxton secured roughly 64% of the vote in that contest. Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative from the Austin area, former teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian, emerged as the Democratic nominee after defeating progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the party’s primary.

The general election matchup has proven far more competitive than many expected in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Multiple polls throughout the summer showed the race essentially tied or within the margin of error. A New York Times/Siena survey in late June found both candidates at 47% among likely voters. Other surveys from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, Emerson College, and others have similarly depicted a close contest, with some recent polls in July and August giving Talarico narrow leads and others showing Paxton slightly ahead. Aggregates have generally hovered near even.Talarico has held a substantial fundraising advantage. Campaign finance reports showed him raising tens of millions more than Paxton, allowing the Democrat to dominate television and digital advertising for much of the summer while the Republican campaign lagged in spending. Outside groups have also poured money into the race, with significant independent expenditures targeting both candidates.Paxton has sought to portray Talarico as too progressive for Texas, emphasizing issues such as immigration and cultural topics. Talarico and Democrats have focused on Paxton’s past legal and ethics controversies, along with affordability concerns that have ranked highly among voters in recent surveys. Independents and Hispanic voters have been particularly closely watched demographic groups in the race.

Shanker’s comment reflects a strand of conservative commentary that acknowledges Paxton’s likely path to victory in the Republican-leaning state while expressing reservations about him as a standard-bearer. Other voices on the right have voiced similar frustration with the nominee’s fundraising and campaign energy even as they express confidence in the eventual outcome.With early voting approaching and the November 3 general election still more than two months away, the Texas Senate contest remains one of the most closely monitored races of the 2026 midterms. Forecasters have rated it a toss-up or lean Republican, underscoring that both campaigns face significant work to expand their coalitions in a state undergoing demographic and political shifts.